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刘一江 鲁春霞 黄绍琳

引用本文: 刘一江,鲁春霞,黄绍琳. 京津冀西北农牧交错区水资源承载力综合评价: 以张家口为例. 草业科学, 2020, 37(7): 1-11 doi: 10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2020-0064 shu
Citation:  LIU Y J, LU C X, HUANG S L. Comprehensive assessment of water resources carrying capacity in the northwest Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agro-pastoral ecotone. Pratacultural Science, 2020, 37(7): 1-11 doi: 10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2020-0064 shu

京津冀西北农牧交错区水资源承载力综合评价: 以张家口为例

    作者简介: 刘一江(1995-),男,山东淄博人,在读硕士生,主要从事环境生态学研究,E-mail: ;
    通讯作者: 鲁春霞, lucx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金项目: 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2017ZX07101001)

摘要: 水资源短缺是限制区域经济社会发展的刚醒约束因子,如何协调发展与水资源可承载能力之间的矛盾始终是一个巨大难题。本研究将熵权法与多层次综合模糊评价法相结合,从水资源、经济、社会、生态环境4个角度对张家口市水资源承载力现状及时空发展变化进行了研究与分析。结果显示: 2017年张家口市水资源承载力较低,大部分地区处于临界承载或超载状态;2005–2017年,张家口市水资源承载力呈小幅上升的态势,空间上具有显著的分异性。研究对该地区的城市水资源规划和水资源的可持续开发利用具有一定的借鉴和参考价值。

English

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  • og真人网站

    图 1  张家口市水资源承载力综合评价指数及各子系统评价指数现状

    Figure 1.  Status of comprehensive evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity and evaluation index of each subsystem in Zhangjiakou City

    图 2  og真人网站 张家口市水资源承载力综合评价指数和各子系统评价指数变化趋势

    Figure 2.  og真人网站 Change of the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity and the evaluation index of each subsystem in Zhangjiakou City

    图 3  og真人网站 张家口市水资源承载力状况空间分布情况

    Figure 3.  Spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou

    表 1  og真人网站 张家口市水资源承载力指标体系及分级标准

    Table 1.  og真人网站 Index system and grading standards of water resources carrying capacity in Zhangjiakou

    目标层
    Target layer
    准则层 Criterion layer指标类型
    Indicator type
    V1 弱 WorstV2 较弱 WorseV3 一般 NormalV4 较强 BetterV5强 Best
    水资源系统
    Water system
    人均水资源量
    Water resources per capita/m3
    正向
    Positive indicator
    < 300 300~500 500~1 000 1 000~1 700 > 1 700
    干燥度指数
    Aridity index
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 5 5~4 4~2 2~1 < 1
    水资源开发利用率
    Water resource development utilization/%
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 100 100~80 80~60 60~40 < 40
    产水模数 Water production modulus/(×104 m3·km–2) 正向
    Positive indicator
    < 5 5~7 7~15 15~30 > 30
    经济系统
    Economic system
    万元 GDP用水量
    Water consumption per 10 000 CNY
    of GDP/m3
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 100 100~70 70~50 50~40 < 40
    万元工业增加值用水量
    Water consumption per 10 000 CNY of industrial added value/m3
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 100 100~50 50~20 20~10 < 10
    第三产业比重
    Tertiary industry proportion/m3
    正向
    Positive indicator
    < 30 30~40 40~50 50~70 > 70
    亩均灌溉用水量
    Water consumption per unit area/m3
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 400 400~300 300~200 200~100 < 100
    社会系统
    Social system
    人口密度
    Population density/(people·km–2)
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 400 400~200 200~100 100~50 < 50
    城镇化率
    Urbanization rate/%
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 80 80~60 60~40 40~20 < 20
    城市人均生活用水量
    Urban per capita domestic water consumption/m3
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 50 50~40 40~30 30~20 < 20
    农村人均生活用水量
    Rural per capita domestic water consumption/m3
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 60 60~40 40~20 20~10 < 10
    生态环境系统
    Ecological environment system
    生态环境用水率
    Ecological environmental water use rate/%
    正向
    Positive indicator
    < 1 1~2 2~3 3~5 > 5
    单位面积废污水排放量
    Wastewater discharge per unit area/m3
    逆向
    Reverse indicator
    > 2 000 2 000~1 000 1 000~500 500~300 < 300
    植被覆盖度
    Vegetation coverage/%
    正向
    Positive indicator
    < 50 50~60 60~70 70~80 > 80
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 2  og真人网站 张家口市水资源承载力各级评价指标综合权重

    Table 2.  Comprehensive weighting index of Zhangjiakou City's water resources carrying capacity at all levels

    目标层
    Target layer
    准则层
    Criterion layer
    准则层权重
    Criterion layer weight
    指标层
    Indicator layer
    指标层权重
    Indicator layer weight
    水资源承载力 Water carrying capacity 水资源系统
    Water system
    0.356 2 人均水资源量 Water resources per capita 0.494 4
    干燥度指数 Aridity index 0.101 4
    水资源开发利用率 Water resource development utilization 0.083 8
    产水模数 Water production modulus 0.320 4
    经济系统
    Economic system
    0.198 2 万元 GDP用水量
    Water consumption per 10 000 CNY of GDP
    0.284 6
    万元工业增加值用水量
    Water consumption per 10 000 CNY of industrial added value
    0.221 2
    第三产业比重 Tertiary industry proportion 0.324 0
    亩均灌溉用水量 Water consumption per unit area 0.170 1
    社会系统
    Social system
    0.072 0 人口密度 Population density 0.660 9
    城镇化率 Urbanization rate 0.194 8
    城镇人均生活用水量
    Urban per capita domestic water consumption
    0.096 7
    农村人均生活用水量 Rural per capita domestic water 0.074 4
    生态环境系统
    Ecological environment
    system
    0.373 7 生态环境用水率 Ecological environmental water use rate 0.206 3
    单位面积废污水排放量 Wastewater discharge per unit area 0.279 7
    植被覆盖度 Vegetation coverage 0.514 0
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 3  og真人网站 水资源承载力评价指数分级标准

    Table 3.  og真人网站 Classification criteria of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index

    综合评分值
    Comprehensive score
    承载力状态
    Bearing capacity
    状态含义描述 Status description
    0.10~0.26 严重超载
    Severe overload
    水资源供需矛盾极为突出,水资源无法满足经济、社会、生态环境系统的需求
    The contradiction between water supply and demand is extremely prominent, and water resources cannot meet the needs of the economy, society and ecological system
    0.26~0.42 超载
    Overload
    水资源供需矛盾比较突出,水资源能满足最低的生产生活生态需水要求
    The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is more prominent, and water resources can meet the minimum requirements of production, living and ecological water requirements
    0.42~0.58 临界承载
    Critical load
    水资源供需矛盾基本缓解,区域缺水问题得到基本解决
    The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has been basically eased, and the problem of regional water shortage has been basically solved
    0.58~0.74 盈余可承载
    Surplus can bear
    水资源较为丰富,水资源能够充分满足生产、生活、生态发展的需水要求
    Water resources are relatively abundant, and water resources can fully meet the water requirements for production, living, and ecological development
    0.74~0.90 理想可承载
    Ideal to carry
    水资源极为丰富,成为区域经济、社会、生态发展的优势资源
    Abundant water resources, becoming a superior resource for regional economic, social and ecological development
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                • 通讯作者:  鲁春霞, lucx@igsnrr.ac.cn
                • 收稿日期:  2019-02-18
                • 网络出版日期:  2019-07-01
                通讯作者: 陈斌,
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